An engineering approach to improving hospital supply chains

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2008.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 130-132).This thesis explores supply chain management practices that have been implemented, and have improved supply chains in industries outside of healthcare. The presented supply chain practices have been selected because they have the potential to improve efficiency, reduce costs and improve patient safety within hospitals. Due to the diverse nature of hospitals and a unique product profile, there is no "one size fits all" supply chain solution that can be implemented. Therefore, product specific characteristics are discussed that can be used by hospitals in order to develop segmentation policies. Supply chain best practices from outside of the healthcare industry are presented for each category of segmented products. The culmination of this thesis is the presentation of a supply chain that will enable the hospital to significantly reduce inventory storage space, on hand inventory value, and time spent by nurses managing inventory. The proposed supply chain model is patient specific and involves the delivery of items from an offsite warehouse directly to the patient's bedside. In order to successfully implement a new supply chain solution in a hospital setting, change management is a critical part of the process. Methods are presented that have resulted in successful implementations of complex systems within hospitals. Three areas must be considered when managing change in this type of setting, the healthcare environment, the hospital's internal management and operational aspects of the hospital supply chain. Using simulation models, we show that implementation of the proposed supply chain for appropriately segmented products will result in significant supply chain cost savings and boost the revenue.by Scott Hsiang-Jen Cheng and Graham J. Whittemore.M.Eng.in Logistic

An inverse association between ovarian cysts and breast cancer in the Breast Cancer Family Registry

Ovarian cysts of several types are common in women of reproductive age. Their etiology is not well understood but is likely related to perturbations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. The relationship of ovarian cysts to breast cancer risk is not known, although a negative association with polycystic ovarian syndrome has been reported. Incident, invasive female breast cancer cases, population-based controls and unaffected sisters of cases were studied from 3 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Family Registry: Melbourne and Sydney, Australia; the San Francisco Bay Area, USA; and Ontario, Canada. Using the same questionnaire, information was collected on self-reported history of ovarian cysts and other risk factors. Analyses were based on 3,049 cases, 2,344 population controls and 1,934 sister controls from all sites combined. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using both unconditional and conditional logistic regression using an offset term to account for sampling fractions at 2 of the sites. A significantly reduced risk of breast cancer was observed for women reporting a history of ovarian cysts (OR 5 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.82, among all cases and all controls). This risk estimate was similar regardless of control group used, within all 3 sites and in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women (ORs ranging from 0.68-0.75, all 95% CI excluded 1.00). A self-reported history of ovarian cysts was strongly and consistently associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. Further study of ovarian cysts may increase our understanding of hormonal and other mechanisms of breast cancer etiology. ' 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Post hoc Analysis for Detecting Individual Rare Variant Risk Associations Using Probit Regression Bayesian Variable Selection Methods in Case-Control Sequencing Studies

Rare variants (RVs) have been shown to be significant contributors to complex disease risk. By definition, these variants have very low minor allele frequencies and traditional single-marker methods for statistical analysis are underpowered for typical sequencing study sample sizes. Multimarker burden-type approaches attempt to identify aggregation of RVs across case-control status by analyzing relatively small partitions of the genome, such as genes. However, it is generally the case that the aggregative measure would be a mixture of causal and neutral variants, and these omnibus tests do not directly provide any indication of which RVs may be driving a given association. Recently, Bayesian variable selection approaches have been proposed to identify RV associations from a large set of RVs under consideration. Although these approaches have been shown to be powerful at detecting associations at the RV level, there are often computational limitations on the total quantity of RVs under consideration and compromises are necessary for large-scale application. Here, we propose a computationally efficient alternative formulation of this method using a probit regression approach specifically capable of simultaneously analyzing hundreds to thousands of RVs. We evaluate our approach to detect causal variation on simulated data and examine sensitivity and specificity in instances of high RV dimensionality as well as apply it to pathway-level RV analysis results from a prostate cancer (PC) risk case-control sequencing study. Finally, we discuss potential extensions and future directions of this work

Accuracy of Risk Estimates from the iPrevent Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Management Tool.

BACKGROUND: iPrevent is an online breast cancer (BC) risk management decision support tool. It uses an internal switching algorithm, based on a woman's risk factor data, to estimate her absolute BC risk using either the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) version 7.02, or Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm version 3 models, and then provides tailored risk management information. This study assessed the accuracy of the 10-year risk estimates using prospective data. METHODS: iPrevent-assigned 10-year invasive BC risk was calculated for 15 732 women aged 20-70 years and without BC at recruitment to the Prospective Family Study Cohort. Calibration, the ratio of the expected (E) number of BCs to the observed (O) number and discriminatory accuracy were assessed. RESULTS: During the 10 years of follow-up, 619 women (3.9%) developed BC compared with 702 expected (E/O = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.05 to 1.23). For women younger than 50 years, 50 years and older, and BRCA1/2-mutation carriers and noncarriers, E/O was 1.04 (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.16), 1.24 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.39), 1.13 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.34), and 1.13 (95% CI = 1.04 to 1.24), respectively. The C-statistic was 0.70 (95% CI = 0.68 to 0.73) overall and 0.74 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.77), 0.63 (95% CI = 0.59 to 0.66), 0.59 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.64), and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.68), respectively, for the subgroups above. Applying the newer IBIS version 8.0b in the iPrevent switching algorithm improved calibration overall (E/O = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.15) and in all subgroups, without changing discriminatory accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: For 10-year BC risk, iPrevent had good discriminatory accuracy overall and was well calibrated for women aged younger than 50 years. Calibration may be improved in the future by incorporating IBIS version 8.0b

REVEL: An Ensemble Method for Predicting the Pathogenicity of Rare Missense Variants

Supplemental Data Supplemental Data include one figure and five tables and can be found with this article online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajhg.2016.08.016. Supplemental Data Document S1. Figure S1 and Tables S1–S5 Download Document S2. Article plus Supplemental Data Download Web Resources ClinVar, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/clinvar/ dbNSFP, https://sites.google.com/site/jpopgen/dbNSFP Human Gene Mutation Database, http://www.hgmd.cf.ac.uk/ REVEL, https://sites.google.com/site/revelgenomics/ SwissVar, http://swissvar.expasy.org/ The vast majority of coding variants are rare, and assessment of the contribution of rare variants to complex traits is hampered by low statistical power and limited functional data. Improved methods for predicting the pathogenicity of rare coding variants are needed to facilitate the discovery of disease variants from exome sequencing studies. We developed REVEL (rare exome variant ensemble learner), an ensemble method for predicting the pathogenicity of missense variants on the basis of individual tools: MutPred, FATHMM, VEST, PolyPhen, SIFT, PROVEAN, MutationAssessor, MutationTaster, LRT, GERP, SiPhy, phyloP, and phastCons. REVEL was trained with recently discovered pathogenic and rare neutral missense variants, excluding those previously used to train its constituent tools. When applied to two independent test sets, REVEL had the best overall performance (p < 10−12) as compared to any individual tool and seven ensemble methods: MetaSVM, MetaLR, KGGSeq, Condel, CADD, DANN, and Eigen. Importantly, REVEL also had the best performance for distinguishing pathogenic from rare neutral variants with allele frequencies <0.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for REVEL was 0.046–0.182 higher in an independent test set of 935 recent SwissVar disease variants and 123,935 putatively neutral exome sequencing variants and 0.027–0.143 higher in an independent test set of 1,953 pathogenic and 2,406 benign variants recently reported in ClinVar than the AUCs for other ensemble methods. We provide pre-computed REVEL scores for all possible human missense variants to facilitate the identification of pathogenic variants in the sea of rare variants discovered as sequencing studies expand in scale

Chromosomes 4 and 8 implicated in a genome wide SNP linkage scan of 762 prostate cancer families collected by the ICPCG

BACKGROUND In spite of intensive efforts, understanding of the genetic aspects of familial prostate cancer (PC) remains largely incomplete. In a previous microsatellite‐based linkage scan of 1,233 PC families, we identified suggestive evidence for linkage (i.e., LOD ≥ 1.86) at 5q12, 15q11, 17q21, 22q12, and two loci on 8p, with additional regions implicated in subsets of families defined by age at diagnosis, disease aggressiveness, or number of affected members. METHODS In an attempt to replicate these findings and increase linkage resolution, we used the Illumina 6000 SNP linkage panel to perform a genome‐wide linkage scan of an independent set of 762 multiplex PC families, collected by 11 International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG) groups. RESULTS Of the regions identified previously, modest evidence of replication was observed only on the short arm of chromosome 8, where HLOD scores of 1.63 and 3.60 were observed in the complete set of families and families with young average age at diagnosis, respectively. The most significant linkage signals found in the complete set of families were observed across a broad, 37 cM interval on 4q13–25, with LOD scores ranging from 2.02 to 2.62, increasing to 4.50 in families with older average age at diagnosis. In families with multiple cases presenting with more aggressive disease, LOD scores over 3.0 were observed at 8q24 in the vicinity of previously identified common PC risk variants, as well as MYC , an important gene in PC biology. CONCLUSIONS These results will be useful in prioritizing future susceptibility gene discovery efforts in this common cancer. Prostate 72:410–426, 2012. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90245/1/21443_ftp.pd

Analysis of Xq27-28 linkage in the international consortium for prostate cancer genetics (ICPCG) families.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variants are likely to contribute to a portion of prostate cancer risk. Full elucidation of the genetic etiology of prostate cancer is difficult because of incomplete penetrance and genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity. Current evidence suggests that genetic linkage to prostate cancer has been found on several chromosomes including the X; however, identification of causative genes has been elusive. METHODS: Parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses were performed using 26 microsatellite markers in each of 11 groups of multiple-case prostate cancer families from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG). Meta-analyses of the resultant family-specific linkage statistics across the entire 1,323 families and in several predefined subsets were then performed. RESULTS: Meta-analyses of linkage statistics resulted in a maximum parametric heterogeneity lod score (HLOD) of 1.28, and an allele-sharing lod score (LOD) of 2.0 in favor of linkage to Xq27-q28 at 138 cM. In subset analyses, families with average age at onset less than 65 years exhibited a maximum HLOD of 1.8 (at 138 cM) versus a maximum regional HLOD of only 0.32 in families with average age at onset of 65 years or older. Surprisingly, the subset of families with only 2-3 affected men and some evidence of male-to-male transmission of prostate cancer gave the strongest evidence of linkage to the region (HLOD = 3.24, 134 cM). For this subset, the HLOD was slightly increased (HLOD = 3.47 at 134 cM) when families used in the original published report of linkage to Xq27-28 were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was not strong support for linkage to the Xq27-28 region in the complete set of families, the subset of families with earlier age at onset exhibited more evidence of linkage than families with later onset of disease. A subset of families with 2-3 affected individuals and with some evidence of male to male disease transmission showed stronger linkage signals. Our results suggest that the genetic basis for prostate cancer in our families is much more complex than a single susceptibility locus on the X chromosome, and that future explorations of the Xq27-28 region should focus on the subset of families identified here with the strongest evidence of linkage to this region.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

A comprehensive gene-environment interaction analysis in Ovarian Cancer using genome-wide significant common variants.

As a follow-up to genome-wide association analysis of common variants associated with ovarian carcinoma (cancer), our study considers seven well-known ovarian cancer risk factors and their interactions with 28 genome-wide significant common genetic variants. The interaction analyses were based on data from 9971 ovarian cancer cases and 15,566 controls from 17 case-control studies. Likelihood ratio and Wald tests for multiplicative interaction and for relative excess risk due to additive interaction were used. The top multiplicative interaction was noted between oral contraceptive pill (OCP) use (ever vs. never) and rs13255292 (p value = 3.48 × 10-4 ). Among women with the TT genotype for this variant, the odds ratio for OCP use was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.46-0.60) compared to 0.71 (95%CI = 0.66-0.77) for women with the CC genotype. When stratified by duration of OCP use, women with 1-5 years of OCP use exhibited differential protective benefit across genotypes. However, no interaction on either the multiplicative or additive scale was found to be statistically significant after multiple testing correction. The results suggest that OCP use may offer increased benefit for women who are carriers of the T allele in rs13255292. On the other hand, for women carrying the C allele in this variant, longer (5+ years) use of OCP may reduce the impact of carrying the risk allele of this SNP. Replication of this finding is needed. The study presents a comprehensive analytic framework for conducting gene-environment analysis in ovarian cancer

Genetic modifiers of CHEK2*1100delC-associated breast cancer risk

Purpose: CHEK2*1100delC is a founder variant in European populations that confers a two-to threefold increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Epidemiologic and family studies have suggested that the risk associated with CHEK2*1100delC is modified by other genetic factors in a multiplicative fashion. We have investigated this empirically using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Methods: Using genotype data from 39,139 (624 1100delC carriers) BC patients and 40,063 (224) healthy controls from 32 BCAC studies, we analyzed the combined risk effects of CHEK2*1100delC and 77 common variants in terms of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and pairwise interaction. Results: The PRS conferred odds ratios (OR) of 1.59 (95% CI: 1.212.09) per standard deviation for BC for CHEK2*1100delC carriers and 1.58 (1.55-1.62) for noncarriers. No evidence of deviation from the multiplicative model was found. The OR for the highest quintile of the PRS was 2.03 (0.86-4.78) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers, placing them in the high risk category according to UK NICE guidelines. The OR for the lowest quintile was 0.52 (0.16-1.74), indicating a lifetime risk close to the population average. Conclusion: Our results confirm the multiplicative nature of risk effects conferred by CHEK2*1100delC and the common susceptibility variants. Furthermore, the PRS could identify carriers at a high lifetime risk for clinical actions.Peer reviewe

Assessing interactions between the associations of common genetic susceptibility variants, reproductive history and body mass index with breast cancer risk in the breast cancer association consortium: a combined case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Several common breast cancer genetic susceptibility variants have recently been identified. We aimed to determine how these variants combine with a subset of other known risk factors to influence breast cancer risk in white women of European ancestry using case-control studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. METHODS: We evaluated two-way interactions between each of age at menarche, ever having had a live birth, number of live births, age at first birth and body mass index (BMI) and each of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (10q26-rs2981582 (FGFR2), 8q24-rs13281615, 11p15-rs3817198 (LSP1), 5q11-rs889312 (MAP3K1), 16q12-rs3803662 (TOX3), 2q35-rs13387042, 5p12-rs10941679 (MRPS30), 17q23-rs6504950 (COX11), 3p24-rs4973768 (SLC4A7), CASP8-rs17468277, TGFB1-rs1982073 and ESR1-rs3020314). Interactions were tested for by fitting logistic regression models including per-allele and linear trend main effects for SNPs and risk factors, respectively, and single-parameter interaction terms for linear departure from independent multiplicative effects. RESULTS: These analyses were applied to data for up to 26,349 invasive breast cancer cases and up to 32,208 controls from 21 case-control studies. No statistical evidence of interaction was observed beyond that expected by chance. Analyses were repeated using data from 11 population-based studies, and results were very similar. CONCLUSIONS: The relative risks for breast cancer associated with the common susceptibility variants identified to date do not appear to vary across women with different reproductive histories or body mass index (BMI). The assumption of multiplicative combined effects for these established genetic and other risk factors in risk prediction models appears justified.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are